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I went 3/4 on my picks against the spread last week. It was a successful weekend, and so far has been a lucrative NFL season. Let’s keep up the gains with my picks for week 12. 

Both the Saints and Falcons were on a bye in week 11. I will look at their week 10 games for any potential trends or matchups.

In week 10 the Saints lost to the Vikings 19-27. The Josh Dobbs train keeps on rolling, with another impressive win with a brand new team. Jameis Winston was called to action in the 3rd quarter after Derek Carr left the game due to a concussion and shoulder injury. Winston had 122 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.

The Falcons lost to the Cardinals in week 10, 23-25. This was Kyler Murray’s first game back from injury and it was an impressive outing. Murray had a game winning drive which featured impressive speed during a scramble drill, resulting in a game winning field goal. The Falcons went back to Desmond Ridder at quarterback after Taylor Heinicke left the game in the 4th quarter with a hamstring injury. This game will be tough to predict, but I am confident I know how this game will go. Read my Saints vs. Falcons Prediction, Pick, and Odds below.

Saints vs. Falcons Date, Start Time, And Where To Watch

Date: Sunday, November 26, 2023

Start Time: 1:00 pm ET

Where to Watch: FOX

Saints vs. Falcons Odds

Moneyline: Saints -112, Falcons -108

Spread:  Saints -1, Falcons +1

O/U: 42

Saints vs. Falcons Prediction

This game features two strong passing defenses. The Saints have the 8th ranked defense, allowing an average of 313 yards per game. Their passing defense is also ranked 8th, allowing 211 passing yards per game.

The Falcons rank 7th on defense, allowing an average of 309 yards per game. They rank 9th in passing defense, allowing 215 passing yards per game. On paper, these two teams are very similar. 

I believe the difference in this game will be the running game. The Saints run defense is mediocre, ranking 20th, allowing an average of 114 rushing yards per game. The Falcons have a strong running game, it ranks 7th, averaging 130 yards per game. This is a significant advantage for the Falcons. The caveat is, Falcons head coach Arthur Smith. Falcons fans have been begging Smith to utilize their star running back Bijan Robinson more, up until week 10 it would like at times, Smith would purposely leave Robinson out of the offensive gameplan, without a reasonable explanation for it. 

It would be completely logical for Smith to help out his struggling quarterback Desmond Ridder with their strong rushing attack. The wild card is, who knows what Arthur Smith will do on Sunday? Despite this factor, I expect Smith to stop the nonsense, rely on the team’s strengths, and win this crucial NFC south matchup. This division is up for grabs. The spread on this game is tight. My bet is on the Falcons moneyline -108.

Saints vs. Falcons Best Bet

Falcons ML (-108 @ Draftkings)